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A measure of ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty)
Theory and Decision ( IF 0.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-03 , DOI: 10.1007/s11238-020-09798-6
Pavlo Blavatskyy

Uncertain or ambiguous events cannot be objectively measured by probabilities, i.e. different decision-makers may disagree about their likelihood of occurrence. This paper proposes a new decision-theoretical approach on how to measure ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) that is analogous to axiomatic risk measurement in finance. A decision-theoretical measure of ambiguity is a function from choice alternatives (acts) to non-negative real numbers. Our proposed measure of ambiguity is derived from a novel assumption that ambiguity of any choice alternative can be decomposed into a left-tail ambiguity (uncertainty in the realization of relatively undesirable outcomes) and a right-tail ambiguity (uncertainty in the realization of relatively desirable outcomes). This decomposability assumption is combined with two standard assumptions: ambiguity sources (events) are independent (separable) from outcomes (consequences) and any elementary increase in uncertainty (increasing a more desirable outcome in a binary act) necessarily increases ambiguity.



中文翻译:

模棱两可的度量(骑士不确定性)

不确定或模棱两可的事件不能用概率客观地衡量,。不同的决策者可能不同意他们发生的可能性。本文针对如何测量歧义性(Knightian不确定性)提出了一种新的决策理论方法,该方法类似于金融中的公理化风险度量。决策理论上的歧义度量是从选择选择(行为)到非负实数的函数。我们提出的歧义度量方法来自一个新的假设,即任何选择替代方案的歧义都可以分解为左尾歧义(实现相对不良结果的不确定性)和右尾歧义(实现相对理想结果的不确定性)结果)。该可分解性假设与两个标准假设结合在一起:

更新日期:2021-01-04
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