The Malthusian model, which implies a long-run interaction between demography and living standards, forms a cornerstone of our understanding of comparative economic development, as postulated by unified growth theory. Its empirical validity has been supported by a number of studies, most of which examine England. In Northern Italy, however, there might have been a reversed “preventive check.” We employ a cointegrated VAR model on Italian data from ca. 1650–1799 and find some evidence for this, but also for diminishing returns and thus a more “Malthusian” society than in, for example, England at that time.

中文翻译：

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意大利北部工业化之前的马尔萨斯？

马尔萨斯模型暗示着人口与生活水平之间的长期互动，这是统一增长理论所假定的理解比较经济发展的基石。它的经验有效性得到了许多研究的支持，其中大多数研究了英格兰。但是，在意大利北部，可能会发生逆转的“预防检查”。我们对来自ca的意大利数据采用了协整VAR模型。1650年至1799年，为此找到了一些证据，但也证明了收益递减，因此比当时的英格兰更“马尔萨斯式”社会。