We analyze US state government spending behavior with a general intertemporal model allowing for asymmetry in balanced budget rules in a panel data setting. We find no strong evidence for forward-looking behavior in state spending; balanced budget rules are a significant constraint. States with budget rules imposing lighter restrictions are more likely to exhibit habit formation, while those with stricter rules demonstrate asymmetric responses to revenue changes. Evidence for a precautionary savings motive is limited. Balanced budget requirements trigger substantial pro-cyclical spending, possibly amplifying state economic volatility for states with tight fiscal rules, especially after revenue increases.

我们使用通用的跨期模型来分析美国州政府的支出行为，该模型允许在面板数据设置中平衡预算规则中的不对称性。我们没有发现有力的证据证明政府支出具有前瞻性。平衡的预算规则是一个重要的约束。预算规则实施较轻限制的国家更有可能表现出习惯养成，而预算规则较严格的国家则表现出对收入变动的不对称反应。预防性储蓄动机的证据有限。平衡的预算要求会触发大量的顺周期支出，这可能会加剧财政紧缩的州的经济波动，尤其是在收入增加之后。