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The Past Is Prologue
Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice ( IF 3.491 ) Pub Date : 2018-11-01 , DOI: 10.1177/1541204018809839
Matt DeLisi 1 , Ramate Bunga 1 , Mark H. Heirigs 1 , Jacob H. Erickson 1 , Andy Hochstetler 1
Affiliation  

The versatility/specialization debate in criminology has important theoretical, research, and juvenile/criminal justice ramifications. Although offenders are mostly versatile, there is important evidence of specialization, but much of this evidence is derived from highly technical statistical approaches. Drawing on data from a cohort of serious delinquents committed to the California Youth Authority, logistic regression models revealed robust evidence for criminal specialization net the effects of behavioral and demographic controls. Prior homicide was associated with a 1,467% increased likelihood of being currently adjudicated for a homicide offense. Similar prior–current involvement in robbery (294% increased likelihood), aggravated assault (200%), burglary (148%), and drug sales (736%) was found. Logistic regression with odds ratios provides intuitive, valuable estimates of specialization in offending whereby prior involvement in a specific form of delinquency dramatically increases the likelihood of current involvement in the same form of crime.

中文翻译:

过去是序幕

犯罪学的多功能性/专业性辩论具有重要的理论,研究和少年/刑事司法分支。尽管罪犯大多是多才多艺的,但是有专门化的重要证据,但是其中许多证据都来自高度技术化的统计方法。逻辑回归模型利用来自加州青少年管理局的一系列严重违法行为的数据,揭示了犯罪专业化对行为和人口控制的影响的有力证据。先前的凶杀案与目前被判犯有凶杀罪的可能性增加了1,467%。发现之前类似的抢劫行为(可能性增加294%),严重攻击(200%),盗窃(148%)和毒品销售(736%)。
更新日期:2018-11-01
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