This study examined youth probationers’ risk profiles at the start and the end of probation and the types of transition in risk profiles over time. It further identified the association between the transition types, their adverse family background as well as their probation completion status. Using a sample of 935 youth probationers in Singapore, a latent transition analysis was conducted based on seven dynamic domains captured in the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory 2.0. Based on the risk profiles, three subgroups of youths were identified: (1) the “De-escalators” had reduced risk in one or multiple domains; (2) the “Persistors” continued to have moderate risk in most domains; and (3) the “Escalators” showed an increase in risk levels in one or multiple domains. Compared to the De-escalators, the Persistors and Escalators were less likely to complete their probation orders. Further analysis revealed that youths from nonintact families or families with conviction history showed higher relative risk in being Persistors. These findings contribute to our understanding on the changes in probationers’ risk profiles over time and provide information for early and more targeted intervention efforts.

中文翻译：

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了解青少年罪犯风险状况的变化：潜在过渡分析

这项研究检查了青少年缓刑者在缓刑开始和结束时的风险状况，以及随着时间推移风险状况转变的类型。它进一步确定了过渡类型，其不利的家庭背景以及其缓刑完成状态之间的关联。使用新加坡的935名青年缓刑者样本，根据“青年服务水平/案例管理清单2.0”中捕获的七个动态域进行了潜在过渡分析。根据风险概况，确定了三个年轻人分组：（1）“自动扶梯”降低了一个或多个领域的风险；（2）在大多数领域，“持久性”风险仍然中等；（3）“自动扶梯”显示一个或多个领域的风险水平增加。与自动扶梯相比，坚持者和自动扶梯不太可能完成其缓刑令。进一步的分析表明，来自非残障家庭或有定罪历史的家庭的年轻人表现出较高的相对危险性。这些发现有助于我们了解缓刑者的风险状况随时间的变化，并为早期和更有针对性的干预工作提供信息。