Technology hype is an important concept in business, marketing, and science and technology studies, but it is rarely related to security studies. What is technology hype? How does it relate to national security? And to what effect? This article examines rational and performative perspectives on technology hype as either a kind of exaggeration or expectant discourse. Adopting the latter view, I compare and contrast hype cycles with threat inflation and securitization theory. I then sketch my own theoretical propositions about technology hype as being common in national security, with variable degrees of acceptance, familiar content, and significant consequences. A case study on quantum technologies provides proof of concept. I find ample evidence of hype over quantum computers, communications, and sensors; audience acceptance in the national security community varies with familiarity; and consequential decisions appear to follow. While cyclical expectations suggest the need for caution when citing quantum technologies in support of quantum approaches to international relations, a middle-range theory about technology hype provides useful insight into security practice.

中文翻译：

---

量子技术炒作与国家安全

技术炒作是商业、营销和科学技术研究中的一个重要概念，但很少与安全研究相关。什么是技术炒作？它与国家安全有何关系？并达到什么效果？本文将技术炒作的理性和表演性观点视为一种夸张或期待的话语。采用后一种观点，我将炒作周期与威胁膨胀和证券化理论进行比较和对比。然后，我勾勒出我自己关于技术炒作在国家安全领域普遍存在的理论主张，具有不同程度的接受度、熟悉的内容和重大的后果。关于量子技术的案例研究提供了概念证明。我发现了大量关于量子计算机、通信和传感器的炒作的证据；国家安全界的观众接受度因熟悉程度而异；随之而来的决定似乎随之而来。虽然周期性预期表明在引用量子技术支持国际关系的量子方法时需要谨慎，但关于技术炒作的中等理论为安全实践提供了有用的见解。