The p value is still misinterpreted as the probability that the null hypothesis is true. Even psychologists who correctly understand that p values do not provide this probability may not realize the degree to which p values differ from the probability that the null hypothesis is true. Importantly, previous research on this topic has not addressed the influence of multiple testing, often a reality in psychological studies, and has not extensively considered the influence of different prior probabilities favoring the null and alternative hypotheses. Simulation studies are presented that emphasize the magnitude by which p values are distinct from the posterior probability that the null hypothesis is true, under an extensive set of conditions including multiple testing. Particular emphasis is placed on p values just under .05, given the prevalence of these p values in the published literature, though p values in other intervals are also assessed. In diverse conditions, results indicate that posterior probabilities favoring the null hypothesis are often far removed from .05, and this pattern quickly gets much worse when multiple testing is conducted. Rather than simply telling researchers that p values do not reflect the probability favoring the null hypothesis, as has been done previously, the results presented here allow psychologists to see the evidence provided by various p values. These results have particularly topical implications for the replication crisis, for how much weight should be placed on a single study, and for how the term statistical significance should be interpreted, particularly in conditions typical in psychological research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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对p的误解：p值与原假设成立的概率，多重测试的影响以及对复制危机的影响之间存在差异。

p值仍然被误认为是原假设成立的概率。即使是正确理解p值不能提供此概率的心理学家，也可能无法意识到p值与原假设为真的概率有多少不同。重要的是，有关该主题的先前研究并未解决多重测试的影响，而这在心理学研究中通常是现实的，并且尚未广泛考虑偏爱原假设和替代假设的不同先验概率的影响。提出了模拟研究，该研究强调了p值与零假设为真的后验概率不同的幅度，该条件在包括多重检验在内的广泛条件下进行。重点放在.05以下的p值，考虑到已发表文献中这些p值的普遍性，尽管也评估了其他间隔中的p值。在不同条件下，结果表明，支持原假设的后验概率通常与.05相差甚远，并且在进行多次测试时，这种模式很快变得更糟。此处提供的结果不仅让研究人员简单地告诉研究人员p值不能反映赞成零假设的概率，而且这里提供的结果还可以使心理学家看到各种p值所提供的证据。这些结果对复制危机，在单项研究中应赋予多少权重以及应如何解释统计学意义一词，特别是在心理学研究中典型的情况下，具有特别的主题意义。