This article examines the effects of in-effect free trade agreements (FTA) on exports of Pakistan using the extended gravity model of bilateral trade flows. The effects of FTAs are measured by finding the differences between most-favoured nation (MFN) and preferential tariff rates (the tariff gap) as well as the zero-one binary dummy variable. Our systematic comparison of both the measures of an FTA suggests that the estimation based on the tariff gap is consistent with the observed changes in the trade pattern of Pakistan. Pakistan–China FTA (PCFTA) has the largest stimulating effect for Pakistan’s exports, while the effects of other FTAs are much smaller and not much different from each other. The effects of FTAs on agricultural products tend to be higher than those of manufacturing ones, suggesting ability of firms in the former to better comply with imposed rules of origin (ROO) than the latter. At the one-digit Standard of International Trade Classification, the effect of FTAs is mixed across products and FTAs.

中文翻译：

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南亚自由贸易协定的出口促进效应

本文使用双边贸易流动的扩展引力模型研究了有效的自由贸易协定 (FTA) 对巴基斯坦出口的影响。FTA 的影响是通过找出最惠国 (MFN) 和优惠关税率（关税差距）之间的差异以及零一二元虚拟变量来衡量的。我们对自由贸易协定的两种措施的系统比较表明，基于关税差距的估计与观察到的巴基斯坦贸易模式的变化是一致的。巴中自贸协定（PCFTA）对巴基斯坦出口的刺激作用最大，而其他自贸协定的影响要小得多，彼此之间也没有太大区别。自贸协定对农产品的影响往往高于制造业，表明前者的公司比后者更好地遵守强加的原产地规则 (ROO) 的能力。在国际贸易分类的一位数标准中，自由贸易协定的影响在产品和自由贸易协定之间是混合的。