This paper investigates the impact of World Bank development policy operations on the quality of economic policy during the period 1998-2015. A new theoretical framework distinguishes among three effects that have been conflated hitherto: (a) marginal impacts of additional policy actions within the current year; (b) length of the policy engagement with client countries, and (c) changes over time in the marginal impact of policy actions. The analysis focuses on policy actions that are particularly relevant for the quality of economic management. Consistent with past research, robust panel estimations indicate that development policy financing has a positive effect on the quality of government economic policy. The econometric work suggests that the nature of the policy dialogue and quality of the engagement with government matter more than the sheer number of policy actions adopted. There is also tentative evidence that although the positive impact is sustained over time, the initial years of an engagement are the most productive for improvement in government economic policy. This may be linked to the fact that over time the reform program changes from 'first-generation' to more complex 'second-generation' policy actions.

中文翻译：

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重要的是旅程吗？重新审视世界银行政策性贷款的影响

本文研究了世界银行发展政策运作对 1998-2015 年期间经济政策质量的影响。一个新的理论框架区分了迄今为止被混为一谈的三种影响：(a) 当年额外政策行动的边际影响；(b) 与客户国进行政策接触的时间长度，以及 (c) 政策行动的边际影响随时间的变化。分析侧重于与经济管理质量特别相关的政策行动。与过去的研究一致，稳健的面板估计表明，发展政策融资对政府经济政策的质量有积极影响。计量经济学工作表明，政策对话的性质和与政府接触的质量比所采取的政策行动的数量更重要。还有初步证据表明，虽然积极影响会随着时间的推移而持续，但参与的最初几年对改善政府经济政策最有成效。这可能与这样一个事实有关，即随着时间的推移，改革计划从“第一代”转变为更复杂的“第二代”政策行动。