Flood events impose great distress on chemical industrial areas, since they may cause Natech accidents involving multiple units. Furthermore, escalation vectors exerted by major accidents can trigger knock-on events, so-called domino effects, causing very severe consequences. In the present study, a methodology is proposed to include domino effects triggered by floods in a quantitative risk assessment, by addressing the frequency assessment of flood-induced domino scenarios. A comprehensive procedure is developed, combining the fragility model for unit damage due to floods, probability estimation for domino escalation, and combinatorial analysis for overall scenarios. Moreover, the flow interference due to the layout of chemical industrial areas is explored to calculate the damage probability more accurately. The methodology has been demonstrated by a case study, the changes in risk indexes and damage zones due to Natech domino effects are discussed. The results show that the overall risk significantly increases with respect to conventional scenarios when considering flood-induced Natech events and domino effects, evidencing the importance of risk analysis of Natech-related domino effects. Finally, some prevention measures have been proposed for chemical industrial areas to make them more resilient and safer when it comes to floods.

洪水事件可能会对化学工业区造成极大的困扰，因为它们可能导致涉及多个单位的Natech事故。此外，由重大事故施加的逐步升级矢量可能触发连锁事件，即所谓的多米诺效应，造成非常严重的后果。在本研究中，提出了一种方法，通过解决洪水诱发的多米诺骨牌情景的频率评估，将洪水引发的多米诺效应纳入定量风险评估中。开发了一个综合程序，将洪水造成的单元损坏的脆弱性模型，多米诺骨牌升级的概率估计与整体方案的组合分析相结合。此外，探索了由于化学工业区的布局而引起的流动干扰，从而可以更准确地计算破坏概率。通过案例研究证明了该方法，并讨论了由于Natech多米诺骨牌效应造成的风险指数和损坏区域的变化。结果表明，与传统情况相比，考虑洪水引起的Natech事件和多米诺骨牌效应，总体风险显着增加，这证明了与Natech相关的多米诺骨牌效应的风险分析的重要性。最后，针对化学工业区提出了一些预防措施，以使它们在洪灾时更具弹性和更安全。证明了与Natech相关的多米诺骨牌效应的风险分析的重要性。最后，针对化学工业区提出了一些预防措施，以使它们在洪灾时更具弹性和更安全。证明了与Natech相关的多米诺骨牌效应的风险分析的重要性。最后，针对化学工业区提出了一些预防措施，以使它们在洪灾时更具弹性和更安全。