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Nexus between vulnerability and adaptive capacity of drought-prone rural households in northern Bangladesh
Natural Hazards ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-03 , DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04473-z
Roquia Salam , Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam , Badhon Kumar Shill , G. M. Monirul Alam , Md. Hasanuzzaman , Md. Morshadul Hasan , Sobhy M. Ibrahim , Roger C. Shouse

Bangladesh is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. The appraisal of household vulnerability and capacity to adapt under climate change is therefore crucial for developing effective disaster risk reduction policies. This study explored the nexus between vulnerability and capacity of rural drought-prone households using survey data of 400 respondents from northern Bangladesh. Through extensive rigorous literature review, 22 and 25 indicators were employed to develop the vulnerability and capacity index, respectively. Co-occurrence network analysis was employed to show the nexus among different classes of capacity and vulnerability. Spearman correlation was also performed to analyze the nexus between vulnerability and capacity. The results reveal that households’ vulnerability varies across livelihood assets (human, social, financial, physical, and natural), but capacity follows a similar distribution pattern. A significant negative association was found between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, whereas the strong correlations between social and human capital, human and financial capital, social and financial capital, and physical and natural capital were identified in this study. Future projection (up to 2024) using support vector machine algorithm shows that overall drought adaptive capacity will increase, while vulnerability will decrease. The outcomes of this study would help planners and policy-makers in planning and taking proper initiatives that might be useful for adopting efficient disaster risk reduction strategies.



中文翻译:

孟加拉国北部干旱多发的农村家庭的脆弱性与适应能力之间的联系

孟加拉国是世界上气候最脆弱的国家之一。因此,评估家庭的脆弱性和适应气候变化的能力对于制定有效的减少灾害风险政策至关重要。这项研究使用了来自孟加拉国北部的400名受访者的调查数据,探索了易受干旱影响的农村家庭的脆弱性与能力之间的联系。通过广泛的严格文献回顾,分别采用了22和25个指标来开发脆弱性和能力指数。使用共现网络分析来显示不同类别的能力和脆弱性之间的联系。还进行了Spearman相关分析以分析脆弱性和能力之间的联系。结果表明,家庭的脆弱性因生计资产(人力,社会,财务,物理的和自然的),但是容量遵循类似的分布方式。在脆弱性和适应能力之间发现了显着的负相关性,而在这项研究中,社会与人力资本,人力与金融资本,社会与金融资本以及自然与自然资本之间存在着强烈的相关性。使用支持向量机算法的未来预测(到2024年)显示,总体干旱适应能力将提高,而脆弱性将降低。这项研究的结果将有助于规划者和决策者规划和采取适当的措施,这些措施可能对采用有效的减少灾害风险战略有用。在脆弱性和适应能力之间发现了显着的负相关性,而在这项研究中,社会与人力资本,人力与金融资本,社会与金融资本以及自然与自然资本之间存在着强烈的相关性。使用支持向量机算法的未来预测(到2024年)显示,总体干旱适应能力将提高,而脆弱性将降低。这项研究的结果将有助于规划者和决策者规划和采取适当的措施,这些措施可能对采用有效的减少灾害风险战略有用。在脆弱性和适应能力之间发现了显着的负相关性,而在这项研究中,社会与人力资本,人力与金融资本,社会与金融资本以及自然与自然资本之间存在着强烈的相关性。使用支持向量机算法的未来预测(到2024年)显示,总体干旱适应能力将提高,而脆弱性将降低。这项研究的结果将有助于规划者和决策者规划和采取适当的措施,这些措施可能对采用有效的减少灾害风险战略有用。使用支持向量机算法的未来预测(到2024年)显示,总体干旱适应能力将提高,而脆弱性将降低。这项研究的结果将有助于规划者和决策者规划和采取适当的措施,这些措施可能对采用有效的减少灾害风险战略有用。使用支持向量机算法的未来预测(到2024年)显示,总体干旱适应能力将提高,而脆弱性将降低。这项研究的结果将有助于规划者和决策者规划和采取适当的措施,这些措施可能对采用有效的减少灾害风险战略有用。

更新日期:2021-01-03
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