How do weather and climate change impact the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from the Chinese mainland,Environmental Research Letters

当前位置： X-MOL 学术 › Environ. Res. Lett. › 论文详情

Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)

How do weather and climate change impact the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from the Chinese mainland
Environmental Research Letters ( IF 5.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-30 , DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcf76
Jing-Li Fan _{1,

2} , Yabin Da _{2,

3} , Bin Zeng ₁ , Hao Zhang ₁ , Zhu Liu ₄ , Na Jia ₅ , Jue Liu ₆ , Bin Wang ₇ , Lanlan Li ₈ , Dabo Guan ₄ , Xian Zhang _{9,

10}

Affiliation

Center for Sustainable Development and Energy Policy Research, School of Energy and Mining Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, People’s Republic of China
These authors contributed equally to this work and should be considered co-first authors.
Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, United States of America
Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People’s Republic of China
State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, People’s Republic of China
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, People’s Republic of China
Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, Peking University/ Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing 100191, People’s Republic of China
School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, People’s Republic of China
The Administrative Centre for China’s Agenda 21, Ministry of Science and Technology, Beijing 100038, People’s Republic of China
Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to expand, while the relationship between weather conditions and the spread of the virus remains largely debatable In this paper, we attempt to examine this question by employing a flexible econometric model coupled with fine-scaled hourly temperature variations and a rich set of covariates for 291 cities in the Chinese mainland More importantly, we combine the baseline estimates with climate-change projections from 21 global climate models to understand the pandemic in different scenarios We found a significant negative relationship between temperatures and caseload A one-hour increase in temperatures from 25 °C to 28 °C tends to reduce daily cases by 15 1%, relative to such an increase from -2 °C to 1 °C Our results also suggest an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between relative humidity and confirmed cases Despite the negative effects of heat, we found that rising temperatures induced by climate change are unlikely to contain a hypothesized pandemic in the future In contrast, cases would tend to increase by 10 9% from 2040 to 2059 with a representative concentration pathway (RCP) of 4 5 and by 7 5% at an RCP of 8 5, relative to 2020, though reductions of 1 8% and 18 9% were projected for 2080-2099 for the same RCPs, respectively These findings raise concerns that the pandemic could worsen under the climate-change framework © 2020 The Author(s) Published by IOP Publishing Ltd

更新日期：2020-12-30

点击分享查看原文

点击收藏

公开下载

阅读更多本刊最新论文本刊介绍/投稿指南11