Abstract

Data on the maximal runoff of rivers in the Don Basin during spring flood are generalized, the cases of nonstationarity of time series are identified along with periods when such changes have taken place. The obtained results are used to evaluate the characteristics of maximal flow of spring flood under nonstationary conditions with the use of Bayesian approach. The results are given as a map of the depths of maximal runoff of spring flood with 1% exceedance probability and recommended for hydrological calculations when designing water-management facilities.

中文翻译：

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非平稳条件下唐盆地最大春季洪水径流特征评估

摘要

总结了唐洪盆地春季洪水期间河流最大径流量的数据，确定了时间序列不稳定的情况以及发生这种变化的时期。使用贝叶斯方法，将获得的结果用于评估非平稳条件下春季洪水的最大流量特征。结果以超过1％概率的春季洪水最大径流深度图给出，建议在设计水管理设施时用于水文计算。