Climate change is a major problem for humanity, as it can drastically alter the current climate scenario, affecting mainly agriculture. In the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), agribusiness is the main economic activity representing a large part of the state’s GDP. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of climate change on the climatological water balance in the Pantanal regions of Brazil. We used a 30-year historical series (1987–2018) of air temperature data (Tar, °C) and rainfall (P, mm) from the state of MS; climatic data were collected by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration platform/Prediction of World Wide Energy Resources - (NASA/POWER). Potential evapotranspiration (PET) was estimated using the Camargo (1971) method. The water balance (WB) was calculated using the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method, with soil water storage capacity equal to 100 mm. We calculated the aridity, hydric, and moisture indices for all municipalities in MS, and later classified according to Thornthwaite (1948). The scenarios used were based on the (IPCC 2014) projections. Air temperatures in the MS ranged from 22.5 to 27.6 °C in the current scenario; rainfall and PET have an average of 1400 mm annual⁻¹ and 1188 mm annual⁻¹, respectively. The WB of the state of MS has an EXC and DEF of 197.7 mm annual⁻¹ and 64.2 mm annual⁻¹, respectively. The predominant climatic type is C2 - subhumid. The highest values for SWS and EXC occur in scenarios S5, S10, S15, and S20, which are the most moisture scenarios. The highest DEF occurred in scenarios S1, S11, S16, and S21; these scenarios showed the driest climatic types. The northwestern region of the state, where the Pantanal is located, was the driest. In scenario S21, the climate of the state has a drastic change that makes several crops in the MS unfeasible, thus negatively influencing the fauna and flora of the Pantanal biome.

气候变化是人类的主要问题，因为它可以大大改变当前的气候状况，主要影响农业。在南马托格罗索州（MS），农业综合企业是主要经济活动，占该州GDP的很大一部分。因此，本研究的目的是评估气候变化对巴西潘塔纳尔湿地气候水平衡的影响。我们使用了30年的历史序列（1987-2018），该数据来自MS州的气温数据（Tar，°C）和降雨量（P，mm）；气候数据是由美国国家航空航天局平台/全球能源资源预测-（NASA / POWER）收集的。使用Camargo（1971）方法估算潜在的蒸散量（PET）。使用Thornthwaite and Mather（1955）方法计算水平衡（WB），土壤蓄水量等于100毫米。我们计算了MS中所有城市的干旱，水合和湿度指数，然后根据Thornthwaite（1948）进行了分类。使用的方案基于（IPCC 2014）的预测。在当前情况下，MS中的气温范围为22.5至27.6°C。降雨和PET年平均1400毫米每年^-1和1188毫米^-1。MS州的WB的EXC和DEF分别为每年197.7毫米^-1和64.2毫米每年^-1。C2是主要气候类型-半湿润。SWS和EXC的最大值出现在湿度最高的场景S5，S10，S15和S20中。DEF最高发生在场景S1，S11，S16和S21中；这些情景显示了最干旱的气候类型。潘塔纳尔湿地位于该州的西北地区，是最干旱的地区。在方案S21中，该州的气候发生了剧烈变化，使得MS中的几种作物不可行，从而对潘塔纳尔生物群系的动植物群产生了负面影响。