The application of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) methods focuses mainly on its initial levels of the hierarchy of damage identification. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new strategy that allows going further, predicting the progression of the damage indices through the extrapolation of Autoregressive (AR) models with one-step-ahead prediction estimated at early-stage damage conditions using piecewise cubic splines. A trending curve capable of predicting the damage progression can be determined, and it allows the extrapolation to future structural conditions based on some assumptions. The data sets of a benchmark involving a three-story building structure are investigated to illustrate the proposed methodology. The extrapolated coefficients in the most severe condition are implemented to identify an extrapolated AR model, and the results are encouraging by adequately reproducing the structure’s future behavior if the damage is initially detected and not repaired immediately.

结构健康监测（SHM）方法的应用主要集中在其损伤识别层次结构的初始级别。本文的目的是提出一种新的策略，该策略可以进一步发展，通过使用自回归（AR）模型外推预测损害指数的进展，并使用分段三次样条在阶段性损伤条件下提前估计一步。可以确定能够预测破坏进程的趋势曲线，并可以根据一些假设将其外推到未来的结构条件。研究了涉及三层建筑结构的基准数据集，以说明所提出的方法。在最严酷的条件下使用外推系数来识别外推AR模型，