Proactively addressing future impacts of invasive plants depends critically on modeling invasive plant abundance. Yet, the vast majority of spatial models of invasion risk focus on occurrence alone. Expanding spatial analyses to consider not only potential for establishment, but also potential for high abundance is an important next step in ecological modeling. We assembled spatial reports of occurrence and abundance across the coterminous United States for 70 terrestrial invasive plants. Using records of occurrence, we used maximum entropy to model suitable climate and land cover conditions for each species’ potential range (‘establishment range’). Combining abundance information into high, medium, and low ranks, we used ordinal regression to model suitable conditions for high potential abundance of each species (‘abundance range’). We compared establishment versus abundance ranges to assess overlap for individual species as well as geographic hotspots of invasion risk. Across all species, the abundance range encompassed a mean of only 16% of the establishment range. Hotspots where many species’ ranges overlapped were consistent for establishment and abundance ranges in 47% of land area. But, modeling establishment alone missed many abundance hotspots, particularly in western U.S. ecoregions. Expanding ecological modeling to focus on invasive plant abundance provides a considerably different view of geographic invasion risk. Our results suggest that spatial models using occurrence data alone are likely to overestimate areas of high impact in their assessment of ‘invasion risk’. Considering abundance in spatial models of invasion risk is a critical next step for more targeted monitoring and management.

积极应对入侵植物的未来影响在很大程度上取决于对入侵植物丰度的建模。但是，绝大多数入侵风险空间模型仅关注发生。扩大空间分析范围，不仅要考虑建立的潜力，还要考虑高丰度的潜力，这是生态建模的重要下一步。我们收集了整个全美70个陆地入侵植物的发生和丰度的空间报告。利用发生的记录，我们使用最大熵为每个物种的潜在范围（“建立范围”）建立合适的气候和土地覆盖条件模型。将丰度信息组合到高，中和低等级中，我们使用序数回归对每种物种的高潜在丰度（“丰度范围”）建模合适的条件。我们比较了建立范围和丰度范围，以评估单个物种的重叠以及入侵风险的地理热点。在所有物种中，丰度范围平均仅占建立范围的16％。许多物种的范围重叠的热点在47％的土地面积上的建立和丰度范围保持一致。但是，仅凭模型建立就错过了许多丰富的热点，特别是在美国西部的生态区。扩展生态模型以关注入侵植物的丰度提供了关于地理入侵风险的不同观点。我们的结果表明，仅使用发生数据的空间模型就可能在评估“入侵风险”时高估了影响较大的区域。