当前位置: X-MOL 学术Glob. Ecol. Conserv. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Future projections for terrestrial biomes indicate widespread warming and moisture reduction in forests up to 2100 in South America
Global Ecology and Conservation ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01441
Luciano J.S. Anjos , Everaldo Barreiros de Souza , Calil Torres Amaral , Tassio Koiti Igawa , Peter Mann de Toledo

Terrestrial biomes are the main reservoirs of biodiversity and CO2 on the planet. In South America, they play a crucial role in climate regulation and biodiversity conservation. Despite scientific advances and recent efforts, there is still no detailed analysis of trends in surface air temperature and precipitation changes until the end of the 21st century and magnitude of change for South America’s terrestrial biomes. In this study, we used the annual mean of temperature and annual cumulative precipitation variables provided by WorldClim (version 2.1) from an ensemble of five Global Circulation Models from the most recent simulations of the CMIP6 project. We used four-time intervals between 2020 and 2100, combined at two climatic trajectories (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), to map climate change scenarios’ trend magnitude in South America. Also, we evaluate the exposure level of the nine terrestrial biomes according to their respective vegetal cover densities. Our results indicate that in the two possible futures evaluated (SSP2-4.5 & SSP5-8.5), the terrestrial biomes of South America would be exposed to climatic conditions that are not analogous to the current ones. The results indicate a persistent and long-term annual temperature trend increase, indistinctly for all terrestrial biomes and a significant moisture reduction in forest biomes. The consolidation of such climate scenarios can make potentially modify water and carbon cycling patterns and promoting biodiversity loss, mainly at forest biomes, with probably more severe effects under the pessimistic scenario.



中文翻译:

未来对陆地生物群落的预测表明,南美的森林普遍变暖和水分减少,直至2100年

陆地生物群落是生物多样性和CO 2的主要储集层在这个星球上。在南美,它们在气候调节和生物多样性保护中发挥着至关重要的作用。尽管有科学上的进步和近期的努力,但直到21世纪末,南美洲陆地生物群系的地表气温和降水变化趋势以及变化幅度仍没有详细分析。在这项研究中,我们使用了WorldClim(2.1版)提供的年均温度和年度累积降水量变量,这些数据来自CMIP6项目最新模拟的五个全球循环模型的集合。我们使用了2020年至2100年之间的四个时间间隔,并结合了两个气候轨迹(SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5)来绘制南美气候变化情景的趋势量。也,我们根据它们各自的植物覆盖密度评估了九种陆地生物群落的暴露水平。我们的结果表明,在评估的两个可能的未来(SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5)中,南美的陆地生物群落将面临与当前环境不相似的气候条件。结果表明,持续的和长期的年度温度趋势增加,对于所有陆地生物群落而言并不清楚,而森林生物群落中的水分明显减少。这种气候情景的合并可能潜在地改变水和碳循环模式,并主要在森林生物群落上促进生物多样性的丧失,在悲观情景下可能产生更严重的影响。5&SSP5-8.5),南美的陆地生物群落将暴露于与当前状况不同的气候条件。结果表明,持续的和长期的年度温度趋势增加,对于所有陆地生物群落而言并不清楚,并且森林生物群落中的水分明显减少。这种气候情景的合并可能潜在地改变水和碳循环模式,并主要在森林生物群落上促进生物多样性的丧失,在悲观情景下可能产生更严重的影响。5&SSP5-8.5),南美的陆地生物群落将暴露于与当前状况不同的气候条件。结果表明,持续的和长期的年度温度趋势增加,对于所有陆地生物群落而言并不清楚,并且森林生物群落中的水分明显减少。这种气候情景的合并可能潜在地改变水和碳循环模式,并主要在森林生物群落上促进生物多样性的丧失,在悲观情景下可能产生更严重的影响。对于所有陆地生物群落而言都不清楚,并且森林生物群落中的水分明显减少。这种气候情景的合并可能潜在地改变水和碳循环模式,并主要在森林生物群落上促进生物多样性的丧失,在悲观情景下可能产生更严重的影响。对于所有陆地生物群落而言都不清楚,并且森林生物群落中的水分明显减少。这种气候情景的合并可能潜在地改变水和碳循环模式,并主要在森林生物群落上促进生物多样性的丧失,在悲观情景下可能产生更严重的影响。

更新日期:2021-01-13
down
wechat
bug