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Evaluation of Seismic Hazard Models with Fragile Geologic Features
Seismological Research Letters ( IF 2.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 , DOI: 10.1785/0220200197
Mark W. Stirling 1 , Michael E. Oskin 2 , J. Ramon Arrowsmith 3 , Anna H. Rood 4 , Christine A. Goulet 5 , Lisa Grant Ludwig 6 , Tamarah R. King 7 , Albert Kottke 8 , Julian C. Lozos 9 , Chris M. Madugo 8 , Devin McPhillips 10 , Dylan H. Rood 11 , Norman H. Sleep 12 , Christine E. Wittich 13
Affiliation  

We provide an overview of a 2019 workshop on the use of fragile geologic features (FGFs) to evaluate seismic hazard models. FGFs have been scarcely utilized in the evaluation of seismic hazard models, despite nearly 30 yr having passed since the first recognition of their potential value. Recently, several studies have begun to focus on the implementation of FGFs in seismic hazard modeling. The workshop was held to capture a “snapshot” of the state‐of‐the‐art in FGF work and to define key research areas that would increase confidence in FGF‐based evaluation of seismic hazard models. It was held at the annual meeting of the Southern California Earthquake Center on 8 September 2019, and the conveners were Mark Stirling (University of Otago, New Zealand) and Michael Oskin (University of California, Davis). The workshop attracted 44 participants from a wide range of disciplines. The main topics of discussion were FGF fragility age estimation (age at which an FGF achieved its current fragile geometry), fragility estimation, FGF‐based evaluation of seismic hazard models, and ethical considerations relating to documentation and preservation of FGFs. There are now many scientists working on, or motivated to work on, FGFs, and more types of FGFs are being worked on than just the precariously balanced rock (PBR) variety. One of the ideas presented at the workshop is that fragility ages for FGFs should be treated stochastically rather than assuming that all share a common age. In a similar vein, new studies propose more comprehensive methods of fragility assessment beyond peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity‐based approaches. Two recent studies that apply PBRs to evaluate probabilistic seismic hazard models use significantly different methods of evaluation. Key research needs identified from the workshop will guide future, focused efforts that will ultimately facilitate the uptake of FGFs in seismic hazard analysis.

中文翻译:

具有脆弱地质特征的地震危险性模型的评估

我们提供了2019年有关使用脆弱地质特征(FGFs)评估地震灾害模型的研讨会的概述。尽管自从首次认识到其潜在价值以来已经过去了近30年,但FGF几乎没有用于评估地震危险性模型。最近,一些研究已开始集中于在地震灾害建模中FGF的实施。举办该研讨会的目的是捕捉FGF工作最新技术的“快照”,并定义一些关键研究领域,这些领域将增加人们对基于FGF的地震危险性模型评估的信心。该会议于2019年9月8日在南加州地震中心的年度会议上举行,召集人是马克·斯特林(Mark Stirling)(新西兰奥塔哥大学)和迈克尔·奥斯金(Michael Oskin)(加利福尼亚大学戴维斯大学)。讲习班吸引了来自各个学科的44名参与者。讨论的主要主题是FGF脆弱性年龄估算(FGF达到其当前脆弱几何形状的年龄),脆弱性估算,基于FGF的地震危险性模型评估以及与FGFs的记录和保存有关的道德考量。现在,有许多科学家正在研究或有动机从事FGF的研究,并且正在开发更多类型的FGF,而不仅仅是不稳定的岩石(PBR)品种。研讨会上提出的想法之一是,应随机对待FGFs的脆性年龄,而不是假定所有人都具有相同的年龄。同样,新的研究提出了除峰值地面加速度和基于峰值地面速度的方法之外的更全面的脆性评估方法。两项最近的将PBR用于评估概率地震灾害模型的研究使用了完全不同的评估方法。研讨会确定的关键研究需求将指导未来的重点工作,这些工作最终将促进地震灾害分析中FGF的吸收。
更新日期:2020-12-31
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