The permanence of glaciers worldwide is uncertain due to increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation. Glaciers are essential as strategic water reservoirs. They pose natural risks, constitute economic resources, and contribute to the rise in sea levels. Identifying places that remain relatively protected against these changes, and that could act as climate change refugia (CCR), is essential to understanding the impacts of climate change on glaciers. This study identified potential CCR for shrinking glaciers in Patagonia and the local characteristics that distinguished the response of glaciers to climate change. Using Maxent models, we calculated the probability that the current climate conditions, where glaciers are present, will be present in the future. To train the model, we used the Chilean glaciers inventory and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis Interim datasets. For future scenarios, we used downscaled climate data for the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. The resulting maps delivered the probability of areas that can act as CCR in different time periods and climate scenarios. Temperature and altitude are the most influential variables to identify CCR for glaciers in Patagonia, with the likelihood of CCR increasing along with increasing altitude. Glaciers at low altitudes, therefore, are vulnerable to dramatic changes, in particular if they are small. Three key processes in obtaining results should guide future studies: the sample of pseudoabsences differentiated by glaciological zone, comparison of models with different regularization coefficients, and the choice of the global circulation model. Improving such results in future models will increase understanding of shrinking glaciers in Patagonia and elsewhere around the world, which is an urgent issue under climate change.

由于温度升高和降水减少，全球冰川的持久性尚不确定。冰川是重要的战略水库。它们构成自然风险，构成经济资源，并导致海平面上升。识别仍然相对免受这些变化影响的地方，并且可以充当气候变化避难所（CCR），这对于理解气候变化对冰川的影响至关重要。这项研究确定了巴塔哥尼亚冰川收缩的潜在CCR以及区分冰川对气候变化响应的局部特征。使用Maxent模型，我们计算了将来存在冰川的当前气候条件的概率。要训​​练模型，我们使用了智利冰川清单和欧洲中型天气预报中心重新分析中期数据集。对于未来的情况，我们将缩减的气候数据用于代表性的浓度路径4.5和8.5。生成的地图提供了在不同时间段和气候情况下可以充当CCR的区域的可能性。温度和海拔高度是识别巴塔哥尼亚冰川CCR的最有影响力的变量，CCR的可能性随着海拔的升高而增加。因此，低海拔的冰川很容易发生剧烈变化，尤其是很小的冰川。获得结果的三个关键过程应指导未来的研究：按冰川学区区分的假缺失样品，具有不同正则化系数的模型的比较，以及全球流通模式的选择。在未来的模型中改善此类结果将增加人们对巴塔哥尼亚和世界其他地区冰川萎缩的认识，这是气候变化下的紧迫问题。