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Cold Pool Dynamics Shape the Response of Extreme Rainfall Events to Climate Change
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ( IF 6.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-30 , DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002306
Kai Lochbihler 1, 2 , Geert Lenderink 1 , A Pier Siebesma 1, 2
Affiliation  

There is increasing evidence that local rainfall extremes can increase with warming at a higher rate than expected from the Clausius‐Clapeyron (CC) relation. The exact mechanisms behind this super‐CC scaling phenomenon are still unsolved. Recent studies highlight invigorated local dynamics as a contributor to enhanced precipitation rates with warming. Here, cold pools play an important role in the process of organization and deepening of convective clouds. Another known effect of cold pools is the amplification of low‐level moisture variability. Yet, how these processes respond to climatic warming and how they relate to enhanced precipitation rates remains largely unanswered. Unlike other studies which use rather simple approaches mimicking climate change, we present a much more comprehensive set of experiments using a high‐resolution large eddy simulation (LES) model. We use an idealized but realistically forced case setup, representative for conditions with extreme summer precipitation in midlatitudes. Based on that, we examine how a warmer atmosphere under the assumption of constant and varying relative humidity, lapse rate changes and enhanced large‐scale dynamics influence precipitation rates, cold pool dynamics, and the low‐level moisture field. Warmer conditions generally lead to larger and more intense events, accompanied by enhanced cold pool dynamics and a concurring moisture accumulation in confined regions. The latter are known as preferred locations for new convective events. Our results show that cold pool dynamics play an increasingly important role in shaping the response of local precipitation extremes to global warming, providing a potential mechanism for super‐CC behavior as subject for future research.

中文翻译:

冷池动力学塑造极端降雨事件对气候变化的响应

越来越多的证据表明,随着气候变暖,当地极端降雨量的增加速度可能高于克劳修斯-克拉佩龙 (CC) 关系式的预期。这种超级CC缩放现象背后的确切机制仍未解决。最近的研究强调了活跃的局部动态是随着变暖而增加降水率的一个因素。在这里,冷池在对流云的组织和加深过程中发挥着重要作用。冷池的另一个已知影响是放大低水平的水分变化。然而,这些过程如何应对气候变暖以及它们与降水率增加的关系在很大程度上仍未得到解答。与其他使用相当简单的方法来模拟气候变化的研究不同,我们使用高分辨率大涡模拟 (LES) 模型展示了一组更全面的实验。我们使用理想化但现实强制的案例设置,代表中纬度地区夏季降水极端的条件。在此基础上,我们研究了在恒定和变化的相对湿度、直减率变化和增强的大尺度动力学的假设下,温暖的大气如何影响降水率、冷池动力学和低层水分场。温暖的条件通常会导致更大和更强烈的事件,伴随着增强的冷池动态和在受限区域同时发生的水分积累。后者被称为新对流事件的首选位置。
更新日期:2021-02-23
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