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Food security outcomes in agricultural systems models: Case examples and priority information needs
Agricultural Systems ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-30 , DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103030
Charles F. Nicholson , Emma C. Stephens , Birgit Kopainsky , Philip K. Thornton , Andrew D. Jones , David Parsons , James Garrett

Analyses of food security with agricultural systems models often focus on indicators of food availability, with limited treatment of the other three dimensions: food access, stability and utilization. We illustrate how three indicators of access (food consumption expenditures, a food insecurity scale and dietary diversity) and their stability can be incorporated into a dynamic household-level model of a maize-based production system in the Kenya highlands and a dynamic regional model of sheep production and marketing in Mexico. Although stylized due to limits on empirical evidence, the analyses suggest that inclusion of multiple access indicators can provide insights because the indicators respond differently to production shocks, demand growth and programs providing production subsidies. We also illustrate how to examine stability of food security outcomes in response to shocks using metrics of hardness (ability to withstand shocks) and elasticity (ability to return to previous conditions). The data required for more widespread empirical implementation of these methods include measurement—preferably at frequent intervals over time—of food access indicators, but also their determinants and linkages to outcomes in agricultural systems models. Analyses of food access and stability will be most valuable for assessments of food security impacts of climate change, when food systems are undergoing transformative change and to identify priority interventions and target audiences.



中文翻译:

农业系统模型中的粮食安全成果:案例和优先信息需求

利用农业系统模型进行的粮食安全分析通常侧重于粮食可利用性指标,而对其他三个方面的处理却有限:粮食获取,稳定和利用。我们说明了如何将获取的三个指标(粮食消费支出,粮食不安全规模和饮食多样性)及其稳定性纳入肯尼亚高地基于玉米的生产系统的动态家庭水平模型和粮食安全的动态区域模型中。墨西哥的绵羊生产和销售。尽管由于经验证据的限制而风格化,但分析表明,纳入多个获取指标可以提供见解,因为这些指标对生产冲击,需求增长和提供生产补贴的计划的反应不同。我们还将说明如何使用硬度(承受冲击的能力)和弹性(恢复先前条件的能力)的指标来检验食品安全结果对冲击的响应稳定性。对这些方法进行更广泛的实证实施所需的数据包括(最好是随时间推移以一定间隔)对粮食获取指标的衡量,以及它们的决定因素以及与农业系统模型结果的联系。当粮食系统正在经历变革性变化并确定优先干预措施和目标受众时,对粮食获取和稳定性的分析对于评估气候变化对粮食安全的影响将是最有价值的。对这些方法进行更广泛的实证实施所需的数据包括(最好是随时间推移以一定间隔)对粮食获取指标的测量,以及它们的决定因素和与农业系统模型结果的联系。当粮食系统正在经历变革性变化并确定优先干预措施和目标受众时,对粮食获取和稳定性的分析对于评估气候变化对粮食安全的影响将是最有价值的。对这些方法进行更广泛的实证实施所需的数据包括(最好是随时间推移以一定间隔)对粮食获取指标的衡量,以及它们的决定因素以及与农业系统模型结果的联系。当粮食系统正经历变革性变化并确定优先干预措施和目标受众时,对粮食获取和稳定性的分析对于评估气候变化对粮食安全的影响将是最有价值的。

更新日期:2020-12-30
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