We discuss a fractional-order SIRD mathematical model of the COVID-19 disease in the sense of Caputo in this article. We compute the basic reproduction number through the next-generation matrix. We derive the stability results based on the basic reproduction number. We prove the results of the solution existence and uniqueness via fixed point theory. We utilize the fractional Adams–Bashforth method for obtaining the approximate solution of the proposed model. We illustrate the obtained numerical results in plots to show the COVID-19 transmission dynamics. Further, we compare our results with some reported real data against confirmed infected and death cases per day for the initial 67 days in Wuhan city.

我们在本文中讨论了 Caputo 意义上的 COVID-19 疾病的分数阶 SIRD 数学模型。我们通过下一代矩阵计算基本再生数。我们根据基本再生数得出稳定性结果。我们通过不动点理论证明了解的存在性和唯一性。我们利用分数 Adams-Bashforth 方法来获得所提出模型的近似解。我们在图中展示了获得的数值结果，以显示 COVID-19 的传播动态。此外，我们将我们的结果与武汉市最初 67 天每天确诊感染病例和死亡病例的一些报告的真实数据进行了比较。