Empirical evidence on factors behind student success in secondary school online classes has been mixed and insufficient in its scope as well as data coverage. With a nationwide secondary school online class dataset with 26,345 students, this study attempts to identify factors of student success and first constructs a statistical model predicting the pass probability of online classes. The following student background variables are associated with a high pass rate: transfer students, graduation-year students, pass-experienced students, and students not re-registering for the course. With respect to learning activities, students who actively communicate with teachers/coordinators via messenger services or questions and answer sessions, or students who log in to the online class at the early stage of the semester are more likely to pass a course. Individual course characteristics are also found to be important for pass in courses requiring a summative exam, while courses for either subjects that have a good track record of students passing or courses for subjects that are taught by teachers with a good track record of students passing are correlated with a high pass rate. Logistic regression results suggest that the pass probability (odds ratio) is greatly increased when students have passing experience, actively interact with teachers/coordinators, or when the subject has a good student passing record.

关于中学在线课堂学生成功的背后因素的实证证据参差不齐，其范围和数据覆盖面也不充分。这项全国范围的中学在线课程数据集包含26,345名学生，这项研究试图确定学生成功的因素，并首先构建一个预测在线课程通过率的统计模型。以下学生背景变量与高通过率相关：转校生，毕业年级学生，有通行证的学生以及未重新注册课程的学生。关于学习活动，通过Messenger服务或问答会议与老师/协调员进行积极沟通的学生，或在学期初期登录在线课程的学生，更可能通过课程。还发现个别课程的特征对于要求进行总结考试的及格课程很重要，而针对具有良好及格成绩的学科的课程或由具有良好及格成绩的老师教授的课程的课程，则是重要的。与高通过率相关。Logistic回归结果表明，当学生具有通过经验，与教师/协调员积极互动或受试者具有良好的学生通过记录时，通过概率（优势比）会大大增加。而具有良好通过记录的学科的课程或由具有良好通过记录的老师教的学科的课程与较高的通过率相关。Logistic回归结果表明，当学生具有通过经验，与教师/协调员积极互动或受试者具有良好的学生通过记录时，通过概率（优势比）会大大增加。而具有良好通过记录的学科的课程或由具有良好通过记录的老师教的学科的课程与较高的通过率相关。Logistic回归结果表明，当学生具有通过经验，与教师/协调员积极互动或受试者具有良好的学生通过记录时，通过概率（优势比）会大大增加。