We investigate regional characteristics of future changes in snowfall in Japan under two emission scenarios—RCP2.6 and RCP8.5—using a high-resolution regional climate model with 5 km grid spacing and discuss the influence of changes in atmospheric circulation. The high-resolution model can simulate details of changes in distributions of total snowfall in Japan. Under RCP2.6, the annual total snowfall decreases in most parts of Japan except for Japan's northern island, Hokkaido. In Hokkaido, the winter snowfall increases even under RCP8.5, especially in January and February. The snowfall peak is delayed from early December to late January in Hokkaido. Along the Sea of Japan in eastern Japan, the winter-total snowfall decreases even if the winter mean temperature is below 0°C in the future climate. The different snowfall changes in Hokkaido and on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan are caused by precipitation changes in each region. Future changes in atmospheric circulation related to the Aleutian low cause the enhancement and the inhibition of winter precipitation in Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan, respectively, contributing to changes in the regional characteristics of snowfall and snow cover in addition to moistening due to atmospheric and ocean warming.

我们使用网格间隔为5 km的高分辨率区域气候模型调查了两种排放情景（RCP2.6和RCP8.5）下日本未来降雪变化的区域特征，并讨论了大气环流变化的影响。高分辨率模型可以模拟日本总降雪分布变化的细节。在RCP2.6下，除日本北部岛屿北海道外，日本大部分地区的年度降雪量均有所减少。在北海道，即使在RCP8.5以下，冬季降雪量也会增加，尤其是在一月和二月。北海道的降雪高峰从12月初推迟到1月下旬。即使在未来气候中冬季平均温度低于0°C，日本东部沿日本海的冬季总降雪量也会减少。北海道和日本东部日本海一侧的降雪变化是由每个地区的降水变化引起的。与阿留申低压有关的未来大气环流变化分别导致北海道和日本东部日本海一侧冬季降水的增加和抑制，除了降湿外，还导致降雪和积雪的区域特征发生变化。到大气和海洋变暖。