Peatlands play an important role as carbon pools, storing a third of the world's soil carbon. However, peatlands in Southeast Asia have suffered from depletion due to economic pressure and the demand for natural resources, often caused by land use changes and fires. Usually, land preparation requires drainage and fires, resulting in major greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere. In this work, we propose a general equation to estimate GHG emissions from fires on peatlands. The contribution of each parameter to the variance of the estimated GHG emissions was also evaluated. We used Monte Carlo simulation, meta‐analyses, and an analytical expression of variance. GHG emissions of a single fire episode were estimated at 842 Mg ha⁻¹ CO₂ eq. with a standard deviation of 466 Mg ha⁻¹ CO₂ eq. The parameter contributing most to variance was the depth of burn, at 94.2%, followed by bulk density, at 5.5%, and emission factors, at 0.3%. Our estimated GHG emissions were close to the amount estimated from the default values provided by the IPCC, strengthening confidence in the IPCC methodology. When the depth of burn was assessed by remote sensing, the parameter that most contributed to variance became the fire‐damaged area, followed by the depth of burn. The contribution of each parameter to variance, as estimated in this study, made it possible to prioritize the effort in uncertainty reduction. Combining Monte Carlo simulation and an analytical expression of variance could be a promising way of obtaining more reliable confidence intervals.

中文翻译：

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估算印度尼西亚泥炭地野火中泥炭燃烧产生的温室气体排放及其不确定性

泥炭地作为碳库发挥着重要作用，储存着世界三分之一的土壤碳。但是，东南亚的泥炭地由于经济压力和对自然资源的需求而遭受了枯竭，这通常是由于土地用途的变化和火灾造成的。通常，整地需要排水和生火，导致向大气中排放大量温室气体（GHG）。在这项工作中，我们提出了一个通用方程式来估算泥炭地火灾引起的温室气体排放。还评估了每个参数对估计温室气体排放量方差的贡献。我们使用了蒙特卡洛模拟，荟萃分析和方差分析表达式。一场大火的温室气体排放量估计为842 Mg ha ^-1 CO ₂当量。标准偏差为466 Mg ha^-1 CO ₂当量 对方差影响最大的参数是燃烧深度（94.2％），其次是堆积密度（5.5％）和排放因子（0.3％）。我们估算的温室气体排放量接近IPCC提供的默认值估算的数量，从而增强了对IPCC方法论的信心。通过遥感评估燃烧深度时，最能引起变化的参数是火灾损坏区域，其次是燃烧深度。如本研究中估计的那样，每个参数对方差的贡献使得可以将减少不确定性方面的工作放在优先位置。结合蒙特卡罗模拟和方差分析表达式可能是获得更可靠的置信区间的一种有前途的方式。