Abstract—

This study compares the 1945–2015 time series of the radial growth rate of pine Pinus sylvestris L. damaged by the 1974–1978 outbreak of the pine looper moth Bupalus piniarius L. and those of the undisturbed Krasnoturansk pine forest. It is proposed to employ regulatory characteristics of time series, including the order of autoregression (lag value n) and standard deviation of the amplitude of time series oscillation s (number of the first differences of radial growth s), to estimate differences between radial growth rates of trees in damaged and intact stands. These indicators allow for a quantitative assessment of the lag of the processes regulating the radial growth rate. Only the first differences of the series of radial growth rate are assessed, inasmuch as the regulatory characteristics can be correctly calculated only for the stationery time series. Trees exposed to insect outbreak either have no lag in the dynamics of the first differences of the series in the radial growth rate or they have high values of autoregression order n. At the same time, the oscillations of the current radial growth rate of damaged trees in relation to the age gradient are significantly larger than in undisturbed trees. We estimate the speed of the growth-rate recovery in damaged trees as a function of regulatory characteristics of time series of the radial growth rate before the damage. These data could be used to assess the pest hazard in the stands and recovery rates of forests damaged by insect outbreaks.

中文翻译：

---

松树er蛾爆发对松树径向生长速率的影响

摘要-

这项研究比较了1974年至1978年爆发的松弯er蛾Bupalus piniarius L.和未受干扰的Krasnoturansk松树林所破坏的松树樟子松的径向生长速率在1945-2015年的时间序列。建议采用时间序列的调节特性，包括自回归的阶数（滞后值n）和时间序列振荡幅度s的标准偏差（径向增长的第一个差数s）。），以估算受损林和完整林中树木径向生长率之间的差异。这些指标允许对调节径向增长率的过程的滞后进行定量评估。由于仅对于文具时间序列可以正确计算调节特性，因此仅评估径向增长率系列的第一个差异。暴露于昆虫暴发的树木在径向生长速率系列的第一个差异的动力学方面没有滞后性，或者它们的自回归阶数n高。同时，受损树木当前径向生长速率相对于年龄梯度的波动明显大于未受干扰树木。我们估计受损树木生长速率恢复的速度取决于受损之前径向生长速率时间序列的调控特征。这些数据可用于评估林分中的害虫危害以及因昆虫暴发而受损的森林的恢复率。