While all sectors of the economy can be impacted by climate variability and change, the agricultural sector is arguably the most tightly coupled to climate where changes in precipitation and temperature directly control plant growth and yield, as well as livestock production. This paper analyzes the direct and cascading effects of temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide (CO2) on agronomic and horticultural crops, and livestock production in Indiana through 2100. Due to increased frequency of drought and heat stress, models predict that the yield of contemporary corn and soybean varieties will decline by 8–21% relative to yield potential, without considering CO2 enhancement, which may offset soybean losses. These losses could be partially compensated by adaptation measures such as changes in cropping systems, planting date, crop genetics, soil health, and providing additional water through supplemental irrigation or drainage management. Changes in winter conditions will pose a threat to some perennial crops, including tree and fruit crops, while shifts in the USDA Hardiness Zone will expand the area suitable for some fruits. Heat stress poses a major challenge to livestock production, with decreased feed intake expected with temperatures exceeding 29 °C over 100 days per year by the end of the century. Overall, continued production of commodity crops, horticultural crops, and livestock in Indiana is expected to continue with adaptations in management practice, cultivar or species composition, or crop rotation.

中文翻译：

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印第安纳州气候变化的农业影响和潜在的适应

虽然经济的所有部门都可能受到气候变异和变化的影响，但农业部门可以说是与气候联系最紧密的部门，其中降水和温度的变化直接控制植物生长和产量以及畜牧生产。本文分析了到 2100 年温度、降水和二氧化碳 (CO2) 对印第安纳州农艺和园艺作物以及畜牧生产的直接和连锁影响。由于干旱和热应激频率的增加，模型预测当代的产量玉米和大豆品种相对于产量潜力将下降 8-21%，不考虑二氧化碳增加，这可能会抵消大豆的损失。这些损失可以通过适应措施得到部分补偿，例如改变种植系统、种植日期、作物遗传、土壤健康，并通过补充灌溉或排水管理提供额外的水。冬季条件的变化将对一些多年生作物构成威胁，包括树木和水果作物，而美国农业部抗寒区的变化将扩大适合某些水果的种植面积。热应激对畜牧生产构成了重大挑战，到本世纪末，预计每年超过 100 天的气温会超过 29 °C，从而导致采食量减少。总体而言，印第安纳州商品作物、园艺作物和牲畜的持续生产预计将继续进行管理实践、栽培品种或物种组成或作物轮作的调整。包括树木和水果作物，而美国农业部抗寒区的转移将扩大适合某些水果的区域。热应激对畜牧生产构成了重大挑战，到本世纪末，预计每年超过 100 天的气温会超过 29 °C，从而导致采食量减少。总体而言，印第安纳州商品作物、园艺作物和牲畜的持续生产预计将继续进行管理实践、栽培品种或物种组成或作物轮作的调整。包括树木和水果作物，而美国农业部抗寒区的转移将扩大适合某些水果的区域。热应激对畜牧生产构成了重大挑战，到本世纪末，预计每年超过 100 天的气温会超过 29 °C，从而导致采食量减少。总体而言，印第安纳州商品作物、园艺作物和牲畜的持续生产预计将继续进行管理实践、栽培品种或物种组成或作物轮作的调整。