This study examines the influence of economic uncertainty on tourism. The key hypothesis to test is that while economic uncertainty reduces outbound tourism, it may boost domestic tourism due to the economic-stagnant effects. Utilizing the framework of the theory of reasoned action to analyze a global sample of 124 countries over the period 1996–2017, we find some initial evidence showing that an increase in economic uncertainty encourages domestic tourism while reducing outbound tourism in the global sample. Notably, while these effects are consistent in the upper-middle-income economies, an increase in uncertainty has a positive impact on both domestic and outbound tourism in lower-middle-income economies and a negative impact on both domestic and outbound tourism in higher-income economies. The key implementation of this study is that tourism development is not always associated with economic development and stability; sometimes it could be a signal of economic stagnancy and inactiveness.

本研究考察了经济不确定性对旅游业的影响。要检验的关键假设是，尽管经济不确定性减少了出境旅游，但由于经济停滞的影响，它可能会促进国内旅游。利用合理行动理论的框架来分析1996-2017年间124个国家的全球样本，我们发现一些初步证据表明，经济不确定性的增加鼓励了国内旅游，同时减少了全球样本中的出境旅游。值得注意的是，虽然这些影响在中高收入经济体中是一致的，但不确定性的增加对中低收入经济体的国内和出境旅游都有积极影响，而对对高收入经济体的国内旅游和出境旅游的影响。这项研究的重点是旅游业的发展并不总是与经济发展和稳定有关。有时可能是经济停滞和不活跃的信号。