This research explores the question of which exchange rate regime would bring about better output and price stability, given the initial conditions and the external shocks facing Argentina’s economy in 2001–2002. Our analytical model incorporates a transmission mechanism, the balance-sheet effects, which formulates the possible interaction between foreign debt and exchange rate policy. We find that a floating exchange rate that depends on external finance outperforms dollarization, after supposing the amount of foreign debt payments is limited. As the relative performance of alternative exchange rate arrangements depends on the foreign debt payments, our empirical results imply that the restructuring of foreign debt should be an integral part of any negotiation concerning the postcrisis exchange rate regime. Our results also show that with the existence of foreign debt, the policy trade-off implied by the Trilemma becomes much constrained.

中文翻译：

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债务清偿后启动新汇率的理由：重新审视阿根廷 2001-2002 年汇率政策的替代方案

鉴于阿根廷经济在 2001-2002 年面临的初始条件和外部冲击，本研究探讨了哪种汇率制度将带来更好的产出和价格稳定性的问题。我们的分析模型包含了一种传导机制，即资产负债表效应，它阐述了外债与汇率政策之间可能的相互作用。我们发现，在假设外债偿付金额有限的情况下，依赖外部融资的浮动汇率优于美元化。由于替代汇率安排的相对表现取决于外债支付，我们的实证结果表明，外债重组应该成为任何有关危机后汇率制度谈判的组成部分。