The seeds of financial imbalances are sown in times of buoyant economic growth. We study the link between macroeconomic performance and financial imbalances, focusing on the experience of the United States since the 1960s. We first follow a narrative approach to review historical episodes of significant financial imbalances and find that the onset of financial disturbances typically occurs when the economy is running hot. We then look for evidence of a statistical link between measures of macroeconomic conditions and financial imbalances. In our in-sample analysis, we find that strong economic growth is followed by a buildup of financial imbalances across all dimensions of the National Financial Conditions Index. In our out-of-sample analysis, we find that the link between strong economic performance and increases in nonfinancial leverage is particularly strong and robust. Using a structural VAR identified with narrative sign restrictions, we also demonstrate that business cycle shocks are important drivers of nonfinancial leverage.

在经济蓬勃发展时期，播下了金融失衡的种子。我们研究宏观经济绩效与金融失衡之间的联系，重点是1960年代以来的美国经验。我们首先采用一种叙事方法来回顾重大金融失衡的历史事件，并发现通常在经济运行过热时才会发生金融动荡。然后，我们寻找宏观经济状况与金融失衡之间的统计联系的证据。在我们的样本分析中，我们发现强劲的经济增长之后，国家金融状况指数各个维度的金融失衡都在加剧。在我们的样本外分析中 我们发现强劲的经济表现与非金融杠杆的增加之间的联系特别牢固。使用带有叙述符号限制的结构化VAR，我们还证明了商业周期冲击是非财务杠杆的重要驱动力。