We develop a quantitative model that is consistent with three principal building blocks of Unified Growth Theory: the break-out from economic stagnation, the build-up to the Industrial Revolution, and the onset of the fertility transition. Our analysis suggests that England’s escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death; household investment in children ultimately raised wages despite an increasing population; and rising human capital, combined with the increasing elasticity of substitution between child quantity and quality, reduced target family size and contributed to the fertility transition.

中文翻译：

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生育率与生产力：具有演化均衡的增长模型

我们开发了一个与统一增长理论的三个主要构建模块相一致的定量模型：经济停滞的突破，工业革命的建立以及生育率转变的开始。我们的分析表明，英国从马尔萨斯陷阱中脱逃的原因是黑死病之后的人口灾难。尽管人口增加，但对儿童的家庭投资最终提高了工资；人力资本的增长，再加上儿童数量和质量之间替代权的增加，减少了目标家庭的规模，并促进了生育率的转变。