Safe water enterprises across the developing world are attempting to meet demand for higher levels of water service. Existing, often free, water sources can make it difficult for these businesses to convince consumers to use a better-quality source or capture sufficient revenue for cost recovery. For this reason, it is imperative to develop a realistic understanding of penetration for small-scale water utilities. A cross-sectional assessment of 60 rural communities was used to evaluate the market share of a private service provider in Ghana. Household survey responses were used to identify the most attractive qualities of available water sources. Distance, taste, appearance, and affordability were found to be the most common motivational drivers. Using this information, a Huff gravity model was developed to assess the actual and potential market penetration and market share for the company in each community. The model and actual results agreed that about 38% of respondents would be regular customers at the given price. Even if water were free, the model predicted that the attractiveness of other sources would make it difficult to capture more than 58% of the sampled households. This illustrates the complexity of the water service ecosystem in a developing, rural context.