With the development of Internet technology and mobile terminals, online social networks have played an increasingly important role in warning information diffusion. In this paper, a population dynamics model is introduced to describe the warning information diffusion process on online social networks. This model takes information attraction, network capacity, warning timeliness, and the interaction between different information into consideration. It could be used to describe and predict the diffusion process of a piece or pieces of warning information without the necessity to capture the detailed structure of social networks. A series of simulation is conducted to reveal the mechanism of the parameters influence on the diffusion process. This model is verified by real-world cases of warning micro-blogs on Sina Weibo about Super Typhoon Licma and results show that this model could well describe the diffusion process of warning information.

随着互联网技术和移动终端的发展，在线社交网络在警告信息传播中起着越来越重要的作用。本文介绍了一种人口动力学模型来描述在线社交网络上的警告信息传播过程。该模型考虑了信息吸引，网络容量，警告及时性以及不同信息之间的交互。它可用于描述和预测一条或多条警告信息的传播过程，而无需捕获社交网络的详细结构。进行了一系列仿真，以揭示参数影响扩散过程的机理。