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An autopilot for energy models – Automatic generation of renewable supply curves, hourly capacity factors and hourly synthetic electricity demand for arbitrary world regions
Energy Strategy Reviews ( IF 7.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100606
Niclas Mattsson , Vilhelm Verendel , Fredrik Hedenus , Lina Reichenberg

Energy system models are increasingly being used to explore scenarios with large shares of variable renewables. This requires input data of high spatial and temporal resolution and places a considerable preprocessing burden on the modeling team. Here we present a new code set with an open source license for automatic generation of input data for large-scale energy system models for arbitrary regions of the world, including sub-national regions, along with an associated generic capacity expansion model of the electricity system. We use ECMWF ERA5 global reanalysis data along with other public geospatial datasets to generate detailed supply curves and hourly capacity factors for solar photovoltaic power, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind power, and existing and future hydropower. Further, we use a machine learning approach to generate synthetic hourly electricity demand series that describe current demand, which we extend to future years using regional SSP scenarios. Finally, our code set automatically generates costs and losses for HVDC interconnections between neighboring regions. The usefulness of our approach is demonstrated by several different case studies based on input data generated by our code. We show that our model runs of a future European electricity system with high share of renewables are in line with results from more detailed models, despite our use of global datasets and synthetic demand.



中文翻译:

能源模型自动驾驶仪–自动生成任意世界区域的可再生能源供应曲线,每小时容量因子和每小时合成电力需求

越来越多地使用能源系统模型来探索具有大量可变可再生能源的情景。这需要高空间和时间分辨率的输入数据,并给建模团队带来了相当大的预处理负担。在这里,我们介绍了一个带有开源许可证的新代码集,该代码集可自动生成用于世界上任何地区(包括次国家地区)的大规模能源系统模型的输入数据,以及相关的电力系统通用容量扩展模型。我们使用ECMWF ERA5全球再分析数据以及其他公共地理空间数据集来生成详细的供应曲线和小时容量因子,以用于太阳能光伏发电,集中式太阳能发电,陆上和海上风力发电以及现有和将来的水电。进一步,我们使用机器学习方法来生成描述当前需求的合成每小时用电需求序列,并使用区域SSP情景将其扩展到未来几年。最后,我们的代码集自动为相邻区域之间的HVDC互连产生成本和损失。基于我们的代码生成的输入数据,通过几个不同的案例研究证明了我们方法的有效性。我们表明,尽管我们使用了全球数据集和综合需求,但我们对未来欧洲电力系统中可再生能源份额较高的模型运行与更详细模型的结果相符。我们的代码集自动为相邻区域之间的HVDC互连产生成本和损失。基于我们的代码生成的输入数据,通过几个不同的案例研究证明了我们方法的有效性。我们表明,尽管我们使用了全球数据集和综合需求,但我们对未来欧洲电力系统中可再生能源份额较高的模型运行与更详细模型的结果相符。我们的代码集自动为相邻区域之间的HVDC互连产生成本和损失。基于我们的代码生成的输入数据,通过几个不同的案例研究证明了我们方法的有效性。我们表明,尽管我们使用了全球数据集和综合需求,但我们对未来欧洲电力系统中可再生能源份额较高的模型运行与更详细模型的结果相符。

更新日期:2020-12-25
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