Optimal performance of civil infrastructure is an important aspect of liveable cities. A judicious combination of physics-based models with monitoring data in a validated methodology that accounts for uncertainties is explored in this paper. This methodology must support asset managers when they need to extrapolate current performance to meet future needs. Three model-based data-interpretation methodologies, residual minimization, Bayesian model updating and error-domain model falsification (EDMF), are compared according to their ability to provide accurate interpretations of monitoring data. These comparisons are made using a full-scale case study, a steel-concrete composite bridge in USA. Validation of data interpretation is carried out using cross-validation (leave-one-out and hold-out). A joint-entropy metric is used to evaluate the extent to which the data that is used for validation contains information that is independent of data used for interpreting structural behaviour. Once accurately updated and validated knowledge of structural behaviour is available, it is employed to make predictions of remaining fatigue-life of the bridge. Validated identification of structural behaviour helps ensure accurate predictions of capacity of bridges beyond their design lives. EDMF and a modified form of Bayesian model updating are analytically and numerically equivalent, while EDMF has several practical advantages. Both methods provide accurate identification and safe estimations of the remaining fatigue life of the bridge. Such enhanced understanding of structural behaviour leads to appropriate decisions regarding civil infrastructure assets.

民事基础设施的最佳性能是宜居城市的重要方面。本文探讨了将基于物理的模型与监测数据合理地结合在一起的一种经验证的方法，该方法可以解决不确定性问题。当资产管理人员需要推断当前绩效以满足未来需求时，该方法论必须为其提供支持。根据三种模型数据解释方法（残差最小化，贝叶斯模型更新和错误域模型伪造（EDMF））的比较，可以提供对监视数据的准确解释。这些比较是通过一个全面的案例研究进行的，该案例是美国的一座钢混凝土复合桥。数据解释的验证使用交叉验证（留一法和保留法）进行。联合熵度量用于评估用于验证的数据包含与用于解释结构行为的数据无关的信息的程度。一旦可以准确更新和验证结构行为的知识，就可以用来预测桥梁的剩余疲劳寿命。对结构行为的有效识别有助于确保桥梁在其设计寿命之外的承载能力的准确预测。EDMF和贝叶斯模型更新的改进形式在分析和数值上都是等效的，而EDMF具有许多实际优势。两种方法都可以对桥梁的剩余疲劳寿命进行准确识别和安全估计。