We develop a theory of endogenous and stochastic fluctuations in economic activity. Individual firms choose to randomize over firing or keeping workers who performed poorly in the past to give them an ex-ante incentive to exert effort. Different firms choose to correlate the outcome of their randomization to reduce the probability with which they fire non-performing workers. Correlated randomization leads to aggregate fluctuations. Aggregate fluctuations are endogenous---they emerge because firms choose to randomize and they choose to randomize in a correlated fashion---and they are stochastic---they are the manifestation of a randomization process. The hallmark of a theory of endogenous and stochastic fluctuations is that the stochastic process for aggregate "shocks" is an equilibrium object.

中文翻译：

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代理业务周期

我们发展了经济活动的内生和随机波动理论。个别公司选择随机解雇或保留过去表现不佳的员工，以给予他们事前努力的激励。不同的公司选择将其随机化的结果相关联，以降低他们解雇表现不佳的员工的可能性。相关随机化导致总体波动。总体波动是内生的——它们的出现是因为公司选择随机化并且它们选择以相关的方式随机化——而且它们是随机的——它们是随机化过程的表现。内生和随机波动理论的标志是总体“冲击”的随机过程是一个均衡对象。