Considerable evidence shows that people have optimistic beliefs about future out- comes. I present an axiomatic model of wishful thinking (WT), in which an endowed alternative, or status quo, influences the agent’s beliefs over states and thus induces such optimism. I introduce a behavioral axiom formalizing WT and derive a representation in which the agent overweights states in which the endowment provides a higher payoff. WT is a novel channel through which an endowment may influence choice behavior and provides a coherent explanation for a variety of observed behavior, including choice reversals among non-status quo alternatives when the status quo. WT leads to inefficient risk sharing in an exchange economy and has unique implications for the gap between willingness to accept and willingness to pay for endowed goods.

中文翻译：

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扭曲事实：一厢情愿的基础

相当多的证据表明，人们对未来的结果抱有乐观的信念。我提出了一个一厢情愿 (WT) 的公理模型，其中一个被赋予的选择或现状会影响代理对状态的信念，从而导致这种乐观。我引入了一个行为公理形式化 WT 并推导出一个表示，其中代理超重状态，其中禀赋提供了更高的回报。WT 是一种新的渠道，通过它，禀赋可能会影响选择行为，并为各种观察到的行为提供了连贯的解释，包括在维持现状时非现状替代方案之间的选择逆转。WT 导致交换经济中的低效率风险分担，并对接受和支付禀赋商品的意愿之间的差距具有独特的影响。