Job insecurity can have wide-ranging consequences outside of the labour market. A 1999 rise in the French layoff tax paid by large private firms when they laid off older workers made younger workers less secure; this insecurity reduced their fertility by 3.7 percentage points (with a 95% confidence interval between 0.7 and 6.6 percentage points). Reduced fertility is only found at the intensive margin: job insecurity reduces family size but not the probability of parenthood itself. Our results also suggest negative selection into parenthood, as this fertility effect does not appear for low-income and less-educated workers.

中文翻译：

---

法国工作不安全和生育能力的自然实验

工作不安全可能会在劳动力市场之外产生广泛的后果。1999 年法国大型私营公司在解雇年长工人时缴纳的裁员税增加，这使年轻工人的安全感降低；这种不安全感使他们的生育率降低了 3.7 个百分点（95% 的置信区间在 0.7 到 6.6 个百分点之间）。生育率下降仅在密集边缘被发现：工作不安全会减少家庭规模，但不会减少为人父母的可能性。我们的研究结果还表明，对生育的负面选择，因为这种生育效应不会出现在低收入和受教育程度较低的工人身上。