We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view – often expressed by central banks – that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declining since the new millennium and energy prices affecting headline inflation not only via the Phillips curve but also via an independent expectational channel.

中文翻译：

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美联储对通货膨胀的看法模型

我们开发了一个中等规模的通胀动态半结构时间序列模型，该模型与中央银行经常表达的观点一致，即三个组成部分很重要：由长期预期锚定的趋势、菲利普斯曲线和临时波动能源价格。我们发现稳定的长期通胀趋势和明确的陡峭菲利普斯曲线与数据一致，但它们意味着自新千年以来潜在产出下降，能源价格不仅通过菲利普斯曲线影响总体通胀，而且通过独立的期待渠道。