Although prior knowledge is an important predictor of future performance in mathematics, few studies have analyzed which areas of the subject are most critical. Most evidence is based on small- and medium-scale studies from developed countries, with results that cannot be generalized. We explore which areas of mathematics are the most important predictors of future performance by considering the sociodemographic and academic factors of Chile. Scores from a standardized test for eighth-grade mathematics and fourth-grade language arts were analyzed for a sample of 158,818 students, together with data on different areas of fourth-grade mathematics. The results reveal that the association of future performance in mathematics with number skills is as strong as the association of future performance in mathematics with attending an elite private school, in comparison to attending a state-subsidized school. Literacy skills also proved to be an important predictor of future performance in mathematics.

中文翻译：

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优先考虑数字技能如何在国家数学必修课程中充当社会经济不平等的中介

尽管先验知识是未来数学表现的重要预测因素，但很少有研究分析该学科的哪些领域最关键。大多数证据基于发达国家的中小规模研究，结果不能一概而论。我们通过考虑智利的社会人口和学术因素来探索哪些数学领域是未来表现的最重要预测因素。对 158,818 名学生的八年级数学和四年级语言艺术标准化考试的分数以及四年级数学不同领域的数据进行了分析。结果表明，未来数学成绩与数字技能的关联性与未来数学成绩与就读精英私立学校的关联性一样强，与就读国家资助的学校相比。识字技能也被证明是未来数学表现的重要预测因素。