Our study bridges the gap between in previous research on the synchronization between financial and business cycles over a long period. Using the data for the UK from 1270 to 2016 we analyze the synchronization between financial and business cycles using spectral Granger causality (Breitung & Candelon, 2006). Our paper brings several important findings to the discussion on the financial and business cycle link. Our paper is the first one (to the best of our knowledge) that use data over a long period spanning several centuries. We use spectral analysis and advanced spectral analysis (SSA) and (MSSA) to study the relationship between financial and business cycles in the long run. Paper results show financial and business cycles series moves along over the medium-term spectrum. We find a strong link between the cyclical component in the output (real GDP series) and the cyclical component in the financial series (housing price, credit).

中文翻译：

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财务和业务周期同步：跨光谱分析视图

我们的研究弥补了以往关于长期金融和商业周期同步的研究之间的差距。使用英国 1270 年至 2016 年的数据，我们使用频谱格兰杰因果关系分析金融和商业周期之间的同步（Breitung & Candelon，2006 年）。我们的论文为关于金融和商业周期联系的讨论带来了几个重要的发现。我们的论文是第一个（据我们所知）使用跨越几个世纪的长期数据的论文。我们使用频谱分析和高级频谱分析 (SSA) 和 (MSSA) 来研究长期金融和商业周期之间的关系。论文结果显示金融和商业周期系列在中期范围内移动。