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An investigation into the ability of the reverse yield gap to forecast inflation and economic growth in South Africa
South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences ( IF 1.2 ) Pub Date : 2018-08-16 , DOI: 10.4102/sajems.v21i1.1638
Keren A. Gossman , Mark G. Hayes

Research on the usefulness of the RYG in predicting economic conditions such as future economic growth and inflation (Armah & Swanson 2011; Davis & Fagan 1997) as well as stock market returns (Maio 2013) has been done in the United Kingdom (UK) as well as the United States (US). Nobili (2006) explains that if the prices of assets in the market are set by rational investors then it must be that yield spreads, such as the RYG, contain information about investors’ expectations for the future.

中文翻译:

反向收益差距预测南非通货膨胀和经济增长的能力的调查

在英国(UK),已经进行了关于RYG在预测经济状况(例如未来经济增长和通货膨胀(Armah&Swanson 2011; Davis&Fagan 1997)以及股票市场收益(Maio 2013))中的有用性的研究。以及美国(US)。Nobili(2006)解释说,如果市场上的资产价格是由理性投资者设定的,那么收益率差(例如RYG)一定是包含有关投资者对未来预期的信息。
更新日期:2018-08-16
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