Background: It is accepted that the gold price impacts on the value of gold mining companies. Previous studies have shown that, in financial crises, gold is considered a ‘safe haven’ investment in developed markets. Aim: The aim of the study is to investigate whether an investment in gold mining stocks do provide gold price-linked safe haven benefits to investors in an emerging economy. An understanding of the possible safe haven benefits of their companies’ stocks and the variables that influence these benefits would be valuable to managers of gold companies when endeavouring to maximise shareholders’ wealth through hedging and investment decisions. Methods: Regression analysis is applied to investigate the relationship between gold mining returns, the gold price and the rand–dollar exchange rate within a multifactor model motivated by the arbitrage pricing theory. Results: The results indicate that there is a strong, yet changing, relationship between the gold price, the rand–dollar exchange rate and gold mining returns. Conclusion: This study extends the understanding of the changing South African gold mining industry in a world that is still recovering from the global financial crisis.

中文翻译：

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黄金价格与南非黄金开采业回报率之间变化关系的调查

背景：人们公认，金价会影响金矿公司的价值。先前的研究表明，在金融危机中，黄金被视为在发达市场的“避风港”投资。目的：该研究的目的是调查对黄金矿业股票的投资是否确实为新兴经济体的投资者提供了黄金价格相关的避险天堂收益。当试图通过对冲和投资决策来最大化股东的财富时，了解其公司股票的可能的避风港收益以及影响这些收益的变量将对黄金公司的管理者有价值。方法：采用回归分析研究金矿开采收益之间的关系，套利定价理论所推动的多因素模型中的黄金价格和兰特-美元汇率。结果：结果表明，金价，兰特兑美元汇率与黄金开采收益之间存在密切而变化的关系。结论：这项研究扩展了人们对不断变化的南非金矿开采行业的理解，这个世界仍在从全球金融危机中复苏。