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Why Thirlwall's law is not a tautology: more on the debate over the law
Review of Keynesian Economics ( IF 1.8 ) Pub Date : 2019-10-01 , DOI: 10.4337/roke.2019.04.02
J.S.L. McCombie 1
Affiliation  

This paper reconsiders the argument first debated in the 1980s and revisited by Blecker (2016) and Razmi (2016), inter alios, that Thirlwall's law is nothing but a near-identity. It is shown theoretically and by simulation analysis that this proposition is erroneous. It is also demonstrated that Razmi's (2016) specification of the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model is problematical. The paper concludes by assessing the effectiveness of the rate of change of relative prices for export and import growth. Recent evidence provides further support for the importance of non-price competitiveness in international trade and, hence, for Thirlwall's law.

中文翻译:

为什么瑟尔沃尔定律不是同义反复:更多关于法律的辩论

本文重新考虑了在 1980 年代首次辩论并由 Blecker (2016) 和 Razmi (2016) 重新审视的论点,特别是,Thirlwall 定律只不过是一个近等式。从理论上和仿真分析都表明该命题是错误的。还证明了 Razmi (2016) 对国际收支约束增长模型的规范是有问题的。本文最后评估了相对价格变化率对进出口增长的有效性。最近的证据进一步支持了非价格竞争力在国际贸易中的重要性,因此也支持了瑟尔沃尔定律。
更新日期:2019-10-01
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