This paper analyses the performance of Indonesia's economy since the early 1980s using Thirlwall's balance-of-payments-constrained (BoPC) growth model, estimated in statespace form to take account of the varying nature of the income elasticities of demand for exports and imports. Results indicate that after peaking in the mid 1980s at above 10 percent, Indonesia's BoPC growth rate has declined significantly, to about 3 percent in recent years. This is the result of changes in the three components of this growth rate: the income elasticities of demand for exports and imports, and the growth rate of world income, all three significantly lower. Especially worrisome for Indonesia's future is the decline in the income elasticity of demand for exports, a variable that summarizes the non-price competitiveness of its exports. This is the consequence of the lack of progress in upgrading the export basket and increasing its sophistication, with natural resources and low value-added manufacturing still dominating the country's exports. Focusing on the two income elasticities, the analysis shows that their determinants are variables that proxy the economy's structural changes (for example, the manufacturing employment share) and within-sector productivity growth (for example, complexity of the economy, gross fixed capital formation as a share of GDP).

中文翻译：

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印尼的国际收支增长率是否受到限制？时变估计方法

本文使用 Thirlwall 的国际收支约束 (BoPC) 增长模型分析了自 1980 年代初以来印度尼西亚经济的表现，该模型以状态空间形式估计，以考虑到进出口需求的收入弹性的不同性质。结果表明，在 1980 年代中期达到 10% 以上的峰值后，印度尼西亚的 BoPC 增长率显着下降，近年来降至 3% 左右。这是该增长率的三个组成部分发生变化的结果：进出口需求的收入弹性，以及世界收入的增长率，这三者都显着降低。印尼未来尤其令人担忧的是出口需求收入弹性的下降，这是一个概括其出口非价格竞争力的变量。这是由于在升级出口篮子和提高其复杂程度方面缺乏进展，自然资源和低附加值制造业仍主导着该国的出口。分析侧重于两个收入弹性，分析表明它们的决定因素是代表经济结构变化（例如，制造业就业份额）和部门内生产率增长（例如，经济的复杂性、固定资本形成总额为占 GDP 的一部分）。