Applying previously unused regional data to the problem of wage- versus profit-led growth, this paper estimates a demand-and-distribution system for a panel of US states for the years 1974 to 2014. Using variation in minimum-wage policy across states as an instrument for the labor share, I find that – at a regional level – the United States is strongly wage-led. In the absence of a satisfactory econometric identification strategy, I estimate the distributive curve non-parametrically. The results suggest the presence of significant non-linearities, with US states exhibiting profit-squeeze dynamics at low levels of capacity utilization and wage-squeeze dynamics at high levels. These results suggest difficulties for wage-led policy akin to a coordination failure. Classification†JEL: D3, O4, R11

中文翻译：

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美国的分布和产能利用率：来自州级数据的证据

本文将以前未使用的区域数据应用于工资导向型增长与利润导向型增长的问题，估计了 1974 年至 2014 年美国一组州的需求和分配系统。 使用各州最低工资政策的差异作为作为劳动力份额的工具，我发现——在地区层面——美国是强烈的工资主导型。在缺乏令人满意的计量经济学识别策略的情况下，我非参数地估计了分配曲线。结果表明存在显着的非线性，美国各州在产能利用率低时表现出利润挤压动态，而在高水平上表现出工资挤压动态。这些结果表明工资主导政策的困难类似于协调失败。分类 - JEL：D3、O4、R11