Over the last two decades, the current accounts in the European Union (EU) have diverged substantially. This divergence has raised concerns about the sustainability of the core countries' current account surpluses since the peripheral countries' financing of their significantly rising levels of current deficits depends on them. In this study, by applying both linear and nonlinear unit root tests and taking into account structural breaks in the data-generating process, we examine the current account sustainability of the main core countries with large external surpluses. We find that the current accounts of Austria, Denmark and Germany are not on sustainable paths, which suggests that the core economies might not continue to run surpluses to finance the peripheral countries' external deficits. The results of this study imply that the policymakers in peripheral countries might take proactive measures against possible borrowing problems and capital outflow risk in the future.

中文翻译：

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当前帐户盈余的可持续性：来自欧洲国家的证据

在过去的二十年中，欧洲联盟（EU）的经常帐目已经大相径庭。这种差异引起了对核心国家经常账户盈余可持续性的担忧，因为外围国家为其经常账户赤字水平显着上升提供的资金取决于它们。在这项研究中，通过应用线性和非线性单位根检验，并考虑到数据生成过程中的结构性中断，我们研究了拥有大量外部盈余的主要核心国家的经常账户可持续性。我们发现，奥地利，丹麦和德国的经常账户没有走可持续路线，这表明核心经济体可能不会继续保持盈余来为外围国家的外部赤字融资。