The surge of new claims for unemployment insurance (UI) following the COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly depleting states' UI trust fund reserves By early July, the trust funds of three of the four largest states (California, New York, and Texas) were already insolvent, requiring them to borrow to cover benefits We first describe the condition of the states' trust funds before the start of the pandemic-related recession and examine how the states' different methods of financing UI were related to those conditions States that indexed their UI payroll tax base to state average wages had reserves roughly twice those of states that did not index We then analyze the dynamics of UI trust funds using vector autoregression Our main finding is that, following a shock to benefit payments and the consequent drop in UI reserves, states' reserves recover at different rates depending on their method of experience rating tax rates and whether they index their tax base The trust funds of states using the most common type of UI financing - reserve-ratio experience rating and a fixed tax base - tend to require more than a decade to recover, whereas the trust funds of states using the benefit-ratio method tend to recover within five years whether or not they index Federal legislation passed in March in response to the pandemic has implications for financing UI that we discuss in light of our findings

中文翻译：

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经验等级与失业保险融资动态

在COVID-19大流行之后，失业保险（UI）的新索赔激增迅速耗尽各州的UI信托基金储备。到7月初，四个最大的州中的三个（加利福尼亚，纽约和德克萨斯州）的信托基金已经无力偿债，要求他们借贷以偿还福利我们首先描述与大流行相关的衰退开始之前各州信托基金的状况，并研究各州为UI筹集资金的不同方法与那些为其国家建立索引的状况之间的关系。 UI工资税基数到州平均工资的储备金大约是没有索引的州的储备金的两倍，然后我们使用向量自回归分析UI信托基金的动态我们的主要发现是，在福利金受到冲击并随之而来的UI储备金下降之后， 状态'储备金的回收率不同，具体取决于他们对经验分级税率的方法以及是否对税基编制索引使用最常用UI融资类型的州的信托基金-储备金比率经验分级和固定税基-往往要求更多恢复的时间不到十年，而使用收益率方法的州的信托基金往往会在五年内恢复，无论它们是否索引了针对大流行的3月份通过的联邦立法都对UI的融资产生了影响，我们将根据以下内容进行讨论我们的发现而使用收益率方法的州的信托基金往往会在五年内恢复，无论它们是否索引了针对大流行的三月份通过的联邦立法都对UI的融资产生了影响，我们将根据研究结果进行讨论而使用收益率方法的州的信托基金往往会在五年内恢复，无论它们是否索引了针对大流行的三月份通过的联邦立法都对UI的融资产生了影响，我们将根据研究结果进行讨论