In this paper, we explore the cyclicality of the U.S. safety net over the 2000s through the economic peak in February 2020 before the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. We compare the effects of means-tested programs with those of social insurance programs, separately and combined. We find, on a per capita basis, Unemployment Insurance (UI) is by far the most cyclical, particularly when fully funded federal extensions are included. A 1-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 17 percent increase in monthly real UI spending. Overall, the social insurance programs provide an additional $31 (2019$) in per capita real spending for each percentage point increase in the annual unemployment rate, while the means-tested programs provide a statistically insignificant $8.50 per capita for each percentage point increase in unemployment. The means-tested programs without SSI provide a significant $12 for each percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. Thus, the parts of the means-tested safety net that can respond quickly are also providing modest countercyclical stabilization. We conclude by speculating what this means for the current response to COVID-19.

中文翻译：

---

美国安全网的周期性：来自2000年代的证据及其对COVID-19危机的影响

在本文中，我们探讨了在COVID-19危机爆发之前的2020年2月经济高峰至2020年代美国安全网的周期性。我们分别比较和结合了经济状况调查计划和社会保险计划的效果。我们发现，按人均计算，失业保险（UI）到目前为止是最周期性的，尤其是当包括全额资金的联邦扩展时。失业率每增加1个百分点，每月实际UI支出就会增加17％。总体而言，社会保险计划为年失业率每提高一个百分点，人均实际支出增加31美元（2019年），而经经济状况调查的方案，失业率每提高一个百分点，人均实际支出为8.50美元。没有SSI的经过经济调查的计划会为失业率每增加一个百分点提供12美元的收益。因此，经经济审查的安全网中可以快速响应的部分也提供了适度的反周期稳定性。我们通过推测这对当前对COVID-19的响应意味着什么来得出结论。