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NBER Macroeconomics Annual ( IF 7.5 ) Pub Date : 2019-01-01 , DOI: 10.1086/700900
Juliane Begenau

where the franchise value is the difference between the fair and book value of bank equity. The franchise value is positive when banks can increase the value of their assets above their costs, as captured by the book value, or when banks have a funding advantage. A clever application of a standard valuation technique in finance, the Gordon growthmodel, allows the authors to calculate the model-implied market-to-book ratio and the franchise value of the aggregate US banking sector. The inputs to the model are simply a discount rate, the cash flow to bank equity, and a cash flow growth rate. This method is accurate as long as its inputs accurately capture the cash flow process, the risk, and the opportunity cost of capital for bank equity investors. Using bank accounting data and corporate excess return data, the authors calculate banks’model implied franchise value and market-to-book ratio, that is, two of the three terms in the above equation. They conclude that the reduction in bank market valuation is primarily due to a reduction in the value of government guarantees. In my comments, I first present a simplified version of the valuation method to highlight the authors’ key assumptions. Second, I present evidence that banks are exposed to interest rate risk, leading me to argue that interest rate risk should be taken into account for amore compelling

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其中特许权价值是银行股权的公允价值和账面价值之间的差额。当银行可以将其资产的价值增加到高于其成本的时候,特许经营价值是正的,如账面价值所反映的那样,或者当银行具有融资优势时。Gordon 增长模型在金融领域巧妙地应用了标准估值技术,使作者能够计算模型隐含的市净率和美国银行业总体的特许经营价值。该模型的输入只是一个贴现率、银行股本的现金流和现金流增长率。只要它的输入准确地捕捉到银行股权投资者的现金流过程、风险和资本机会成本,这种方法就是准确的。利用银行会计数据和企业超额收益数据,作者计算了银行模型隐含的特许权价值和市净率,即上式三项中的两项。他们得出结论,银行市场估值的下降主要是由于政府担保价值的下降。在我的评论中,我首先介绍了估值方法的简化版本,以突出作者的关键假设。其次,我提出了银行面临利率风险的证据,这使我认为应该考虑利率风险,以便更有说服力 我首先介绍了估值方法的简化版本,以突出作者的关键假设。其次,我提出了银行面临利率风险的证据,这使我认为应该考虑利率风险,以便更有说服力 我首先介绍了估值方法的简化版本,以突出作者的关键假设。其次,我提出了银行面临利率风险的证据,这使我认为应该考虑利率风险,以便更有说服力
更新日期:2019-01-01
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